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Single, polysilicon chip prices have no room to fall, auxiliary material prices are ready to rebound!
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Author:kaozhankj
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Published time: 2018-09-21
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One, the price of a single polycrystalline silicon chip has no room to fall
The 531 new photovoltaic (pv) policy has made the silicon chip segment, which already has severe overcapacity, worse. ", and published a firm belief that the price of polysilicon chips will fall to 2.4 yuan per chip. But the price of silicon chips has fallen by more than our imagination. The fact of the matter is that the price of silicon has fallen about as much as we expected, but the price of silicon has fallen by a little more than we expected last year.
At present, the actual situation is about 85 yuan/kg of polycrystalline silicon for ingots, 2.2 yuan/sheet of polycrystalline silicon and 3.01-3.1 yuan/sheet of monocrystalline silicon. The price of polysilicon wafers has fallen so far, according to a senior executive who works on ingots, who personally expects most companies to lose cash. According to pv news learned that currently ingot casting with silicon material 85 yuan/kg, and ingot casting excluding depreciation cost in 24 yuan/kg (loss) containing silicon, slices per kg block out of the 60 pieces of porn, sliced excluding depreciation cost at about 0.42 yuan/piece, if, in accordance with the numerical calculation, the cost of production per piece of polycrystalline silicon slice is: (85 + 24) / 60 + 0.42 = 2.236 (the cost of production), that is to say, without computing equipment depreciation, plant, depreciation, cost management, under the premise of the cost of capital, each piece of polysilicon production loss 3.6 cents.
There is little room for the same decline in monocrystals, which are nearly 0.9 yuan more expensive than polysilicon, but demand for monocrystals has been brisk recently, and will be front-runner in the fourth quarter.
Second, auxiliary material prices are ready to rebound
From last year till now, the continuous decline of the price of silicon chips has also led to a decline in the price of ingots, crystal pulling and sliced auxiliary materials, but the price of auxiliary materials has also dropped. Take the 65 king kong line, the main auxiliary material for slicing, whose price has dropped from 190 yuan /km in March to 89 yuan /km now, and achieved halved in half a year. It is reported that the current price of the king kong line on the breakeven point, continued to fall the space is not large, the probability of a big rebound.
Take the auxiliary crucible of ingots and silicon nitride powder, there is no room for fall at present, and it is already losing money. The crucible situation is the most serious. Currently, the price of the naked crucible for ingot G6 is around 1600. It is reported that the gross profit per crucible is also very low. It is reported that due to the difficult days of polycrystalline silicon chip enterprises, it is also difficult for auxiliary materials enterprises to collect money. At present, crucible has a three-month payment days, which also needs to occupy a large amount of capital. In addition to the risk of not returning money, it can be said that crucible enterprises are basically making money at a loss.
Of course, this situation can not be continued, since there is no fall, then can only rebound the bottom.
I hope the market of pv can get better soon. Photovoltaic winter, photovoltaic spring will be far away?
The 531 new photovoltaic (pv) policy has made the silicon chip segment, which already has severe overcapacity, worse. ", and published a firm belief that the price of polysilicon chips will fall to 2.4 yuan per chip. But the price of silicon chips has fallen by more than our imagination. The fact of the matter is that the price of silicon has fallen about as much as we expected, but the price of silicon has fallen by a little more than we expected last year.
At present, the actual situation is about 85 yuan/kg of polycrystalline silicon for ingots, 2.2 yuan/sheet of polycrystalline silicon and 3.01-3.1 yuan/sheet of monocrystalline silicon. The price of polysilicon wafers has fallen so far, according to a senior executive who works on ingots, who personally expects most companies to lose cash. According to pv news learned that currently ingot casting with silicon material 85 yuan/kg, and ingot casting excluding depreciation cost in 24 yuan/kg (loss) containing silicon, slices per kg block out of the 60 pieces of porn, sliced excluding depreciation cost at about 0.42 yuan/piece, if, in accordance with the numerical calculation, the cost of production per piece of polycrystalline silicon slice is: (85 + 24) / 60 + 0.42 = 2.236 (the cost of production), that is to say, without computing equipment depreciation, plant, depreciation, cost management, under the premise of the cost of capital, each piece of polysilicon production loss 3.6 cents.
There is little room for the same decline in monocrystals, which are nearly 0.9 yuan more expensive than polysilicon, but demand for monocrystals has been brisk recently, and will be front-runner in the fourth quarter.
Second, auxiliary material prices are ready to rebound
From last year till now, the continuous decline of the price of silicon chips has also led to a decline in the price of ingots, crystal pulling and sliced auxiliary materials, but the price of auxiliary materials has also dropped. Take the 65 king kong line, the main auxiliary material for slicing, whose price has dropped from 190 yuan /km in March to 89 yuan /km now, and achieved halved in half a year. It is reported that the current price of the king kong line on the breakeven point, continued to fall the space is not large, the probability of a big rebound.
Take the auxiliary crucible of ingots and silicon nitride powder, there is no room for fall at present, and it is already losing money. The crucible situation is the most serious. Currently, the price of the naked crucible for ingot G6 is around 1600. It is reported that the gross profit per crucible is also very low. It is reported that due to the difficult days of polycrystalline silicon chip enterprises, it is also difficult for auxiliary materials enterprises to collect money. At present, crucible has a three-month payment days, which also needs to occupy a large amount of capital. In addition to the risk of not returning money, it can be said that crucible enterprises are basically making money at a loss.
Of course, this situation can not be continued, since there is no fall, then can only rebound the bottom.
I hope the market of pv can get better soon. Photovoltaic winter, photovoltaic spring will be far away?
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